3. Attack Considerations: It is impossible to predict either the exact nature of an enemy's intentions or the specific objectives an attack might have. Since this condlti.on prevails it cannot be predicted with any degree of accuracy how an enemy wouLd pattern his attack, how many weapons he would use, or what the total weight of an attack might be, Capabilities of unfriendly countries can be assessed within a reasonable range of probability. Planning at al1 levels must consider all possibilities over the entire range of probable capabilities coupled with likely enemy objectives. a. Delivery Systems Developments over recent years have advanced the state-of-the-art for delivering high yield nuclear weapons. An attack, to be effective, would have to be an integration and combination of several types of delivery systems. The most likely attack would probably be by Inter-Contj.nental Bal-lastic Mj-ssile (ICBM), aircraft, (bomb and air-launched m5.ssiLe), submarine-launehed missile and clandestine or sabotage operations, The probable attack rrmlx'r will change as weapons system technology changes. This is important only insofar as the delivery method affects the warning ti-rae, as the effects of a nuclear weapon of a given slze are the same whether it is delivered as a bomb from an airplane or by an ICBM. b. Vulnerability With high yield nuclear weapons and advanced deli-very systems teehnology, no place in the world is invulnerable to damage from enemSr attack. Evenr under the most favorable condltions no country can conpletely deny penetration to all ?ileepons. Under these circumstances we must recognize that some weapons ean be detonated within the United States. the only reasonable alternative to complete denial of weapons inflicting damage is a civil defense situation which will assure ma:cimum survivaL of the nation. Attacks on the United States could have as their pu?pose a wide variety of objeotives. These eould range from the neutralization of United States retaliatory capabilities to the reduction of the United States to politieal, eeonomie and rullitary impotency. (f) The major tnltial enemy effort will probably be directed at the retaliatory missile and strategic bomber bases in the United States. this world include the warning and compute:: eenters which support and direct the actions of these retaliatory forces. (2) Concurrent andr/or subsequent attacks may be directed at industrial and comrmrnications centers which would necessarj.ly tt-29-62 STP-OSP-h
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